Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean count of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that murder figures may not point to better countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President began the leadership in September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had over these past months is very notable,” the President stated, noting that last month the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true in light of the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it might obscure days when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.