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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."